A Data-Driven, Attorney-Reviewed Analysis for Employment-Based Immigration Applicants
By Wang Law LLC — Business & Employment Immigration Attorneys (Chicago & Montréal)

Recent USCIS and Department of State (DOS) data releases — including updated I-485 pending inventory and 2025 Visa Bulletin trends — reveal important signals for the employment-based green card categories, especially EB-2 and EB-3.

At Wang Law LLC, we regularly analyze government data, track adjudication trends, and advise corporate and individual clients on long-term EB-2/EB-3 strategy. Based on the latest publicly available information, this article provides a transparent, realistic, and data-supported outlook for fiscal year 2026. This analysis is not speculative “rumor-based commentary,” but a professional review grounded in official sources.

I. How Priority Dates Move: The Structural Rules

Movement of priority dates is governed by statutory requirements:

• Annual immigrant visa quota
• Per-country limits
• Overall demand in each EB category
• Pending I-485 inventory carried into the next fiscal year
• USCIS processing speed

Official reference: U.S. Department of State Visa Bulletin Portal:
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html

Even if an applicant has filed I-485, USCIS cannot approve unless the Final Action Date (Chart A) becomes current.

Therefore: Understanding pending inventory + annual visa limits = understanding the future of EB-2 and EB-3.

II. What the 2024–2025 Data Indicates: EB-2 Strengthening, EB-3 Under Pressure

Based on government bulletins and credible industry reports:

1. EB-2 demand is strong but manageable

Evidence from PERM filings, I-140 approvals, and industry analyses suggests EB-2 may benefit from:

• comparatively balanced demand
• consistent high-skill filing volume
• manageable I-485 inventory levels

Reference: Fragomen 2025 Visa Bulletin & Backlog Assessment
https://www.fragomen.com/insights/green-card-backlogs-and-visa-bulletin-trends-what-employers-can-do-in-2025-and-beyond.html

2. EB-3 shows heavier long-term congestion

EB-3 (Skilled Workers & Professionals) consistently reflects:

• larger applicant volume
• limited visa allocation
• persistent pending inventory
• significant retrogression risk

Reference: EB-3 overview； https://eb3.work/green-card-eb3-priority-date-what-you-need-to-know/

3. Retrogression remains a normal EB-3 risk

The Department of State continues to shift dates backward when demand exceeds supply.

Example: Visa Bulletin (March 2025)
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2025/visa-bulletin-for-march-2025.html

4. Pending I-485 inventory directly impacts future advances

Large inventories or excessive carryover reduce available visas in future years.

Reference: Adjustment backlog explanation
https://www.niwus.com/resources/august-2025-visa-bulletin-released-eb-2-retrogression-updates

Conclusion:
EB-2 holds structural advantages entering FY2026.
EB-3’s backlog presents challenges for forward movement.

III. 2026 Forecast — A Reasoned, Data-Backed Projection

Based on quota math, demand patterns, and the known 2024–2025 trendlines, the following is a responsible and realistic forecast.

EB-2: Expected to Advance Consistently

If filing volume and pending inventory remain stable:

• EB-2 may advance several months through FY2026
• Processing may accelerate for many Rest-of-World applicants
• China EB-2 may experience constructive forward movement
• EB-2 remains the more strategic pathway for qualified applicants

EB-3: Likely Tightening or Slow Movement

Due to heavier congestion and higher applicant volume:

• EB-3 may experience slow advancement
• Several months may show minimal or no movement
• Retrogression remains a real possibility
• ROW EB-3 also faces unpredictable demand spikes

Key Variables to Watch

• U.S. labor market conditions
• PERM filing volume
• USCIS adjudication speed
• Possible surges in EB-2→EB-3 downgrades
• DOS visa allocation strategies
• Any congressional reform affecting visa numbers (rare)

IV. Practical Recommendations for Applicants

Professional Guidance from Wang Law LLC

As employment-based immigration attorneys, we recommend the following for clients planning ahead for 2026:

1. Choose EB-2 when eligible

EB-2 remains structurally more favorable for long-term movement.

2. EB-3 applicants should maintain realistic expectations

Longer wait times and slower movement should be anticipated.

3. Prepare documentation for potential interfiling

A well-timed EB-3 → EB-2 or EB-2 → EB-3 switch can dramatically affect outcome timelines.

4. Consider complementary immigration paths

Such as:

• EB-1A / EB-1B
• National Interest Waiver (NIW)
• Family-based categories
• Business or investor programs
• Cross-border strategies (e.g., Canada)

5. Monitor the Visa Bulletin monthly

We recommend reviewing monthly updates with counsel to avoid missed filing windows.

V. Disclaimer on Forecast Accuracy

Priority date predictions are inherently uncertain.
Actual movement may deviate significantly due to:

• DOS visa number calculations
• USCIS adjudication surges or slowdowns
• global economic shifts
• applicant volume spikes
• legislative or executive policy changes

Our projections are based strictly on public data, government bulletins, and industry analyses available as of late 2025.

VI. How Wang Law LLC Assists EB-2 / EB-3 Clients

Wang Law LLC provides comprehensive support for employment-based immigration applicants, including:

✔ EB-2 / EB-3 Category Strategy & Eligibility Evaluations

Tailored analysis to determine the strongest immigrant visa category.

✔ Priority Date Monitoring & Filing Window Management

We track every Visa Bulletin movement for clients.

✔ PERM, I-140, and I-485 Full-Service Representation

Ensuring consistency, compliance, and risk mitigation from start to finish.

✔ Interfiling (EB-2 ↔ EB-3) Guidance

Strategic timing for transfers based on backlog patterns and case posture.

✔ High-Risk Case Review

Including inconsistent filings, prior denials, RFE responses, and status complications.

✔ Corporate & Individual Consultations

Advising HR teams, employers, professionals, researchers, and investors on long-term planning.

VII. Contact Wang Law LLC

📍 Chicago, Illinois – U.S. Headquarters
📍 Montréal, Québec – International Office

📧 info@wanglaw.com
🌐 https://en.wanglaw.com
📞 (312) 519-1115

Wang Law LLC — Evidence-Based Immigration Strategy. Your Trusted Counsel for EB-2, EB-3, and Employment-Based Green Cards.

What Is the Visa Bulletin and Why Does It Matter to EB-5 Investors?

The Visa Bulletin is a monthly publication by the U.S. Department of State. It determines when a green card applicant can proceed to the final stage of their application based on their priority date and country of birth.

For EB-5 investors, the Visa Bulletin controls when you (and your family) can:

• Submit your I-485 Adjustment of Status (if in the U.S.)
• Have your immigrant visa issued by a U.S. consulate (if abroad)

EB-5 Visa Categories Explained

Under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022, the EB-5 category was divided into:

Category	Reserved For	Allocation
Unreserved	General investors	68%
Rural (Set-Aside)	Rural area projects	20%
High-Unemployment (Set-Aside)	TEA zones (Urban or rural)	10%
Infrastructure (Set-Aside)	Public/private infrastructure	2%

Each category follows its own Visa Bulletin status.

Visa Bulletin for June 2025 – EB-5 Final Action Dates

Summary (Final Action Dates – Chart A)

EB-5 Category	China	India	Other Countries
Unreserved (C5, T5, I5, R5, NU, RU)	22JAN2014	01MAY2019	Current
Rural Set-Aside (20%)	Current	Current	Current
High-Unemployment Set-Aside (10%)	Current	Current	Current
Infrastructure Set-Aside (2%)	Current	Current	Current

• “Current” (C) = No backlog; visas are available immediately.
• Date shown = Backlog; only applicants with earlier priority dates may proceed.

How to Find and Interpret Your EB-5 Priority Date

Your priority date is the date your I-526 or I-526E petition was filed with USCIS. You can find it on your I-797 receipt notice.

Compare this date with the “Final Action Date” in the current Visa Bulletin. If your priority date is before or equal to the listed date, you are eligible to proceed.

Key Observations in 2025

• China-born investors in unreserved projects continue to face long wait times — more than 11 years of backlog.
• All reserved categories (Rural, High-Unemployment, Infrastructure) are Current for all countries, including China and India.
• Concurrent filing (I-526E + I-485) is only available to investors in the U.S. whose category is Current.

Backlog vs. No Backlog: What Should EB-5 Investors Choose?

Factor	Backlogged (Unreserved)	No Backlog (Reserved)
Green Card Wait Time	5–15+ years (varies)	~2 years (typical)
Eligibility for I-485	Limited by cutoff	Available if Current
CSPA Child Age-Out Risk	High	Low
Best for China/India nationals	No	Yes
Stability	Lower	Higher

Strategic Tip: Choose a reserved project, especially a Rural project, to avoid delays and maximize your investment outcome.

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Recommendations for EB-5 Investors

If you already invested in an unreserved project and are stuck in backlog:

• File a mandamus action if your case is unreasonably delayed.
• Consider re-investing in a reserved project if eligible.

If you are planning a new EB-5 investment in 2025:

• Prioritize reserved projects, especially rural area offerings.
• Use a lawyer to vet the regional center and perform due diligence.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1: I filed my I-526 in 2017 and was born in China. Can I get a green card in 2025?

Only if your priority date is before Jan 22, 2014, based on the June 2025 bulletin for unreserved EB-5. Otherwise, you must wait.

Q2: If I invest in a rural EB-5 project now, will I be subject to a backlog?

No, as of June 2025, all reserved categories including rural are Current — no backlog.

Contact Wang Law LLC

We provide comprehensive support for EB-5 investors from initial investment structuring to green card filing. With years of experience and bilingual service (English & Chinese), we help investors make smart, compliant decisions.

• Website: www.wanglaw.com
• Email: david@wanglaw.com
• Phone: +1 (312) 519-1115
• Serving U.S., Canada, China-based clients